Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
