🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still