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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "severe consequences" last August if Putin carried on obstructing truce discussions, Trump finally enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' officials lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the plan in reality weaken that essential independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate background, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, like ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his growing autocracy denies them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in position the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would force Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its military have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv if he subsequently opt to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would enable additional hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the plan places no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, the plan asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has broken similar treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community trust Russia this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. Yet different from a powerful national defense – the nation's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not